A bad sign for Democrats in critical Nevada Senate race

The tightest Senate race in America has gotten even more tight in the last weeks of the midterm elections season. Republican Adam Laxalt is now polling with Democratic Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada — a race that represents one of the GOP’s best chances of flipping a Democratic-held seat.

According to a poll by the conservative Club for Growth, Laxalt is now 2 percentage points ahead of Cortez Massto, which was within the poll’s margins of error. This is a significant improvement from last month, when he was down by 3 percentage points.

Laxalt’s bump is a sign of a shift toward Republicans, as economic concerns loom large. This contrasts with the Democratic summer momentum over abortion rights. As the Nov. 8 election draws near, independent voters seem to be leaving the GOP.

Laxalt has a slight lead in public polls because Democrats have invited top surrogates to Nevada in the next two week, including Sen. Bernie Sanders and former President Barack Obama. An earlier rally was held by former President Donald Trump to support Laxalt.

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Club for Growth’s super-PAC is spending almost $13 million in Nevada’s Senate Race. It found that Laxalt moved from 39 percent support in September to 42 percent earlier in the month and then to 45 percent. According to the polling memo, support for Cortez Masto seems to have remained stable at 43 percent. WPA Intelligence conducted the survey Oct. 16-18. The margin of error was 4.4 percent.

CBS released a poll Thursday showing that Laxalt was up 1 percentage point. While Republicans held a slim lead going into spring last fall, Cortez Masto was the clear frontrunner throughout the summer as Democrats attacked Republicans on abortion.

Since Labor Day, the race is tight. Republicans are targeting Georgia’s large working-class and Latino voter base with messages on crime and inflation. Nevada and Georgia are the two most attractive Republican pickups in the party’s fight for control of the narrowly divided Senate. This effort involves protecting seats from swing states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina while eliminating at least one Democratic incumbent.

Recent news has highlighted the importance of Nevada’s race. More than 12 of Laxalt’s relatives supported Cortez Masto last week. The Republican dismissed the endorsement, calling those relatives “Democrats.” Similar numbers of Laxalt’s relatives deplored his decision to run in 2018 for governor, a race he lost. Laxalt is the grandson and U.S. Senator Paul Laxalt’s former governor of Nevada. He served as the state’s attorney-general from 2015 to 2019.

Mail ballots are starting to arrive at registered voters. Early voting starts Saturday. Over the past month, television advertising spending has been almost equal between the parties. Republican groups have ran ads criticizing Cortez Masto’s tenure as attorney general. They also tried to portray her as the one responsible for inflating inflation because she approved large federal spending bills and supported President Joe Biden’s agenda.

“Democrats across America are vulnerable to crime and the economy,” stated David McIntosh (president of the Club for Growth), in a statement to POLITICO.

Cortez Masto, Laxalt and others have both praised the support of separate law enforcement organizations. Club for Growth will release a new ad Friday that spotlights felonies inmates who have received pandemic stimulant checks from the federal government. It includes men convicted for murder, sex traficking, and child pornography. The Club will also make the ad in Spanish as part of its $2.5 million campaign to reach Hispanic voters. Cortez Masto is described in the ad as the “deciding voter” who approves the checks. However, Trump’s pandemic relief payments allowed inmates to also receive checks.

Democrats have attempted to link Laxalt’s opposition to abortion and Trump’s denial about the 2020 election. In a Cortez Masto ad, Laxalt is praised for his support for efforts to reverse the election results. Laxalt was instrumental in leading unsuccessful legal challenges to the election results.

According to the GOP, voters’ concerns over crime, cost, and quality of life will outweigh their disapproval of Trump who lost the state by 2.7 percentage points.