Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Calif. ) California Senate campaign is down to the wire as she tries to secure a second place finish and qualify for the runoff election in November.

According to polls, Rep. Adam Schiff of California (D) is leading the California Senate candidates. Porter and Republican Steve Garvey are in a close second. All candidates will appear on the same ballot regardless of their party affiliation. The top two voters in November will advance.

Low voter turnout could end Porter’s career in Congress early, as the data show that the voters who cast ballots are older and whiter. This could force Garvey to a runoff against Schiff for a blue-red showdown.

Kate Maeder of the Democratic Party in California said that Adam Schiff has always been the one to lose this race. She argued that the low voter turnout is “absolutely beneficial” for the frontrunner.

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Maeder stated that “the only people who are really voting in this race are older white voters, who have watched Adam Schiff on CNN or MSNBC for many years. He has a built-in edge going into the election.”

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Schiff, Porter and Garvey, along with Rep. Barbara Lee, are all running to fill the vacancy left by late Sen. Dianne (D) Feinstein. The vacancy is currently being temporarily filled by Sen. Laphonza (D) Butler, who has decided not to run for a second term.

The four Senate frontrunners are running among 27 candidates for the seat whose term begins January. They are also running in a Special Election to determine who will temporarily replace Butler, the temporary appointment who will serve until November, before the next term starts.

Schiff began the year with a war chest of nearly $35 million. He is well-known for his role as House impeachment director in the first trial of former President Trump, and also as a member of the House Select Committee investigating the Capitol Riot on Jan. 6, 2021.

Porter, who is best known for her whiteboards at committee hearings in the House and for turning a red Orange County House Seat blue in 2018, started the year with $13 million in cash. This was a small but notable amount.

Lee, known for her volunteer work with the Black Panthers, and for sometimes going against her own party, such as when she voted one time against the Afghanistan War, has fallen behind in both polls and fundraising, having started the year this year with less that $1 million.

Maclen Zilber, a Democratic strategist, said that Schiff’s high profile and financial advantage over his rivals have helped him to do well in public polling.

He said that it would be difficult for anyone else to overtake you or gain any ground if they were also spending more money in an area where it is hard to get voters to change their minds.

The poll conducted by The Los Angeles Times in collaboration with the Institute of Governmental Studies at Berkeley University, released on Friday, found that 27 percent of likely voters supported Garvey. Another 9 percent of likely voters were undecided.

The Garvey and Schiff split is within the margin of error for the poll, which is two percentage points. Therefore, both are basically tied.

In a survey conducted by Inside California Politics/Emerson College Polling/The Hill on Thursday, Schiff was ranked 28th, Garvey 20th, Porter 17th, and Lee 8th. Another 17 percent were undecided.

Low turnout is one variable that has thrown the primary’s calculus into disarray. Data from Political Data Intelligence, a research company that tracks voting trends and compiles California voter turnout data, shows that only 11 percent of California’s mail-in votes were returned by Friday.

PDI data show that 25 percent of those who returned ballots were voters 65 years and older, and 14 percent were white voters — voters more inclined to favor Garvey over Porter. Comparatively, only 3 percent of 18 to 34 year old voters and 5 % of voters aged 35 to 49 voted. 10 % of Asian voters voted and 9 % of African Americans voted.

“It’s really going to be on the cusp of possibly being the lowest-percent-turnout election in the state’s history,” said Paul Mitchell, vice president of PDI, who added the stark age divide is “shocking.”

In a poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California last month, Schiff led Porter by 13 percentage points among those aged 45 and older. Porter had a 12-point advantage over Schiff among those under 45. The turnout data indicates that the younger Californians, who prefer Porter, aren’t voting at this time.

According to PDI, approximately 11 million ballots were mailed to registered voters 50 years and older as well as younger voters, making the Golden State age groups about the same size. Californians over 50 years old have voted in large numbers, but fewer than half a million voters under 50 have done so.

It’s like two people going into a mirror and being the same height. Then they come out of the other side and one person is eight times bigger than the other. Mitchell explained that this is what was happening: the ratio of young to old people has increased eight-fold.

Porter is concerned that her low poll numbers may prevent her from making it to the November runoff against Schiff.

“We are on course for a low-turnout election even by primary standards.” Porter, in her weekly Substack, wrote: “Polls show that I do better with younger voters who don’t tend to turn out for low-turnout elections. This is a concerning sign.”

Ben Tulchin is a Democratic pollster who has worked with California Governors. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, an Independent, took the data with a grain. They noted that early voters tend to be older.

A whiter, older turnout may also help Garvey join Schiff as the second-placed Republican.

Schiff and a super PAC that supports him, in an effort to highlight the fierce competition in the race have emphasized Garvey’s name in their ads with the hope of pushing Porter down into third place. Porter’s campaign is boosting GOP longshot Eric Early. This could help Porter to move into second place.

Marisol Samayoa, Schiff campaign spokesperson, told The Hill that Garvey’s ads were justified. Steve Garvey would be a rubber-stamp for Donald Trump’s extremist agenda if he were elected. California